Economic Outlook, Sector Insights and Our Vision for 2026

Economic Outlook, Sector Insights and Our Vision for 2026

Economic Outlook, Sector Insights and Our Vision for 2026

Recent global economic uncertainty and the slowdown observed in food and commodity markets have posed a serious resilience test for companies across our sector. During this period, maintaining financial discipline, managing risks prudently and—most importantly—placing strong emphasis on human relationships have been key differentiators for us. Thanks to the dedication of our team and the trust and support of our producer partners and customers, we have successfully navigated this challenging environment. I would like to sincerely thank all our stakeholders who stood by us throughout this process.

Looking ahead to 2026, we believe it is essential to evaluate both opportunities and risks with a realistic and balanced perspective. Developments in key commodity markets will play an important role in shaping strategic decisions across the industry.

In the cocoa market, prices have remained volatile, trading around USD 5,800–6,000 per metric ton, driven largely by structural challenges in West Africa such as climate-related issues and aging plantations. Market analysts indicate that these supply-side constraints may continue into 2026, potentially keeping upward pressure on prices. As a result, cocoa is expected to remain a market where risk management and forward planning will be increasingly important.

Palm oil, on the other hand, is approaching a critical phase. While production recovery is expected in major producing countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia, uncertainties related to sustainability requirements and weather conditions may continue to influence supply levels. At the same time, palm oil demand is no longer limited to the food industry alone. Its strong link to biodiesel production has become a decisive factor in market dynamics. Policies such as Indonesia’s B45 and potential B50 biodiesel blending mandates are likely to divert a significant portion of palm oil production to domestic energy use, reducing export availability and providing price support in global markets.

These developments suggest that 2026 will be a year in which supply-demand balances are reshaped across major agricultural commodities. Climate conditions, sustainability-driven regulations and producer-oriented policies will continue to create volatility, making strategic flexibility and close market monitoring essential for long-term success.

At Ata Hammadde, we closely follow these economic and sectoral dynamics and align our commercial strategies accordingly. We expect that from the second half of 2026 onward, market activity will gradually stabilize, creating a more favorable environment for trade. Companies that have managed to remain financially sound, protect their supply chains and build strong partnerships during challenging periods will emerge stronger and more competitive.

As we enter the new year, I would like to extend my sincere gratitude to our team members, customers and producer partners for their trust and collaboration. I wish that 2026 brings greater stability, stronger production networks and sustainable growth opportunities for our country, our industry and all our business partners. May the new year be filled with health, prosperity and long-term success for all.

Taygun Güngör

CEO – Ata Hammadde